MUHAMMADIYAH.OR.ID, JAKARTA – The world’s economy seems like a roller coaster. The ups and downs of the economy have experienced conjunctions since 2022 and can be called the ghost of global stagflation which will remain to haunt in 2023.
“Stagflation refers to a condition when economic growth is slow. Currently we are experiencing an economic slowdown and a crisis which leads to high unemployment. We are suffering from unemployment and high inflation, rising prices or weakening people’s purchasing power. All of them occur all at once. When economic growth is slow, and unemployment is high, inflation is supposed to fall because people’s purchasing power decreases and economic growth slows down. However, what happens is an economic slowdown, high unemployment, and high inflation. Thosee are stagflation,” mentioned Mukhaer Pakkanna, the Rector of ITB AD Jakarta at the Muhammadiyah Preaching on Friday (13/1).
“Three days ago the world economic forum mentioned a new vocabulary, ‘show section’, which refers to a recession throughout. Mr. Jokowi said that a third of the world’s economy will confront a recession. Nevertheless, the world economic forum said that the recession spread, but it only reached the ankles or knees. Thus, the recession in 2023 will be only knee or ankle deep. I think that’s a possibility that will happen,” he said.
Indeed, the world bank declared the global economy dropped by 1.7% in 2023. However, Indonesia is considered to have pretty good immunity and economic resilience, but of course with the record that the world bank says 4.8%, which was also lowered by the world bank from 5.3% to 4.8%.
“If we look at these data before they were revised, developed countries also fell. In fact, the World Bank said that the United States would drop 0.5% positively, and Japan would be 0.00%, so it would be stagnant. This means that the global economy in 2023 is in a bad condition. Southeast Asian countries will be quite good because they are included in countries in economic development. Indonesia is projected to be around 5, and Vietnam is consistently above Indonesia. The Philippines is also not bad, Malaysia is below Indonesia, and Cambodia is also experiencing recovery. This means that emerging market countries such as developing countries have pretty good immunity,” said Mukhaer.
According to Mukhaer, the possible problem in 2023 as follow-through of 2022 is the global food crisis.
“We’ll see whether or not the problem of food security will continue. Food prices may rise in 2023,” Mukhaer said.